In Oct 2024, melamine exports were 43,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.94%; the average export price was US$866.00/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1.36%.
In October, the market price fluctuations during the month were generally limited. After the National Day holiday, the price of raw material urea increased significantly compared with before the holiday, giving the melamine market a certain degree of confidence.
In addition, some companies have not yet completed their pre-holiday orders, so most melamine companies’ quotations tentatively increased by 100 yuan/ ton, then it runs steadily. Then in the middle of the year, some units in Sichuan, Xinjiang, Shanxi, and Shandong were shut down for centralized maintenance, and the daily melamine production capacity utilization rate fell below 50%, close to the year’s low in mid-July.
Due to tight supply, melamine prices have risen again. However, considering the sluggish downstream demand, manufacturers are cautious in adjusting prices, and the price focus has shifted slightly upward. In the second half of the year, pre-maintenance equipment was restored one after another.
However, some new equipment in the north was shut down. The overall supply was small and the price stabilized. The southwest and Xinjiang regions were under relatively great pressure. The price fell by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the market operated in a differentiated manner.
Production: Monthly output was 124,300 tons, down 6.61% month-on-month.
Demand: Domestic demand has not improved significantly yet, and follow-up is mainly needed.
1) In October, the domestic urea market was weak and fluctuated downward.
2) The melamine market has limited benefits, and the price is mainly stable and adjusted.
3) The capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry decreased compared with the previous month.
In November, the capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry is expected to be at a relatively high level and the supply is sufficient. However, downstream demand is weak and supply pressure exists.
The market may be flexibly adjusted based on the operation of raw material urea.
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