Production: Melamine powder Monthly output was 133,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.65%.
Demand: The Chinese New Year is approaching, downstream factories are shutting down for holidays, and the market is gradually stagnating.
In January, the average spot price of melamine in China was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 3.16% month-on-month and 22.5% year-on-year.
In the first ten days of the month, the domestic melamine market operated weakly. Enterprises in the northern region were affected by the maintenance of some equipment and considering that downstream pre-holiday stocking has not yet begun, the price stabilized. However, the sales of some enterprises in the southwest and Xinjiang were under pressure, and prices fell.
Starting from the middle of the year, maintenance equipment gradually restarted and increased volume. Northern companies began to accept orders during the Spring Festival, and prices fell slightly. As the price fell to a low level, coupled with the slight recovery in the price of raw material urea, the downstream purchasing mentality improved.
Northern melamine companies basically collected mid-holiday orders in the middle of the month, and then stabilized prices. However, the overall shipments of southern companies are acceptable, and the prices of individual companies increased slightly by 50-100 yuan/ton in the second half of the year. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches at the end of the month, businesses are gradually withdrawing from the market, and the market has entered a state of price and no market.
The domestic urea market fluctuated at a low level in January. The contradiction between supply and demand continues to intensify, and urea prices are under pressure to decline.
Downstream stocking started before the Spring Festival, and the price of melamine fell first and then stabilized.
The monthly average capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry increased compared with the previous month.
In February, the supply of melamine is expected to be around 130,000 tons, which is at a relatively high level. However, in terms of demand, although downstream factories will gradually resume work after the Spring Festival holiday, the resumption progress of each factory is different and some factories have reserves before the holiday and are not in a hurry to purchase. The market trading atmosphere may be average.
It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be affected by the fact that most companies have sufficient advance orders before the Spring Festival or can ship goods but have no or low inventory. The price will be stable and rise. Then we will wait and see the follow-up of downstream demand and the fluctuation of the price of raw material urea. If it is not ideal, the price of melamine will remain low.
Remark: The analysis is based on transaction in China’s Melamine domestic market, it’s only for reference.
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