Production: Chine melamine market in June output was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 15/30% month-on-month.
Demand: Domestic demand has no significant improvement yet, still mainly following the scattered rigid demand.
The melamine market in China fell first and then rose.
In the early part of the month, the melamine market continued the downward trend since late May. Domestic demand was sluggish. In the north, it was the wheat season and in the south, the rainy season.
The operating rate of downstream factories was low. Coupled with the slowdown in exports due to the significant increase in sea freight, the overall demand was dull, restricting the sales of melamine enterprises. The inventory pressure of some enterprises increased, and prices gradually declined.
By the middle of the month, the market was in a stalemate. Considering that the demand situation remained unchanged, and the capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry slightly decreased, manufacturers were not willing to further reduce prices and mainly held prices firm.
In the late part of the month, there were more melamine plant failures and short stops. The capacity utilization rate of the industry continued to decline, reaching a new low for the year.
Supported by this, the price center of melamine rose slightly. However, from the perspective of the demand side, the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing was not high, and mainly followed the rigid demand.
1）There were more faulty and maintenance devices in the second half of the month, and the capacity utilization rate of melamine decreased within the month.
2）The downstream demand was not prosperous.
3）In June, due to frequent failures of urea plants and local agricultural demand, the urea market continued to be strongly volatile.
In July, the melamine maintenance devices will be restarted one after another, and the supply is expected to increase.
On the demand side, there is no improvement yet, and it is still mainly following the rigid demand, which is difficult to boost the market atmosphere.
The supply and demand of raw material urea is relatively loose, and the market may fluctuate and decline. Overall, the melamine market lacks favorable factors, and the price may decline.
However, considering that the cost side is still relatively high, the overall adjustment range is expected to be small.
Remark: The analysis is based on transaction in China’s Melamine domestic market, it’s only for reference.
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