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China Melamine Analysis In May.2025

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1. China Melamine Powder Export date

In May 2025, melamine powder exports reached 63,000 tons, up 38.16% from the previous month; the average export price was US$760.00 per ton, up 1.23% from the previous month.

2. China Melamine Focus On This Month

Production: The monthly output was 153,200 tons, up 7.13% from the previous month.
Demand: Domestic rigid demand follows up, the overall number is small and relatively scattered.

3. China Melamine Analysis For This Month

In May, the average spot price of melamine in China was 5,450 yuan/ton, down 2.84% from the previous month and 14.63% from the previous year.

Before the May Day holiday, various melamine companies cut prices to attract orders, but the effect was not ideal. Most downstream terminal factories were not willing to buy, and only a small number of rigid demand followed up. The inventory of various companies increased. However, after the holiday, the price of raw material urea rose due to the fermentation of export news. Driven by costs, the price of melamine rose slightly in early May. At this time, the capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry reached a new high this year. Although various companies tried their best to support prices under cost pressure, the high daily production dragged down the market trend.

In the second half of the month, as the export details of raw material urea were clarified, the price of raw materials loosened, and the willingness of melamine enterprises to maintain prices weakened, and prices began to fall gradually. Under the influence of serious profit losses, some melamine plants were shut down for maintenance. Although the industry’s capacity utilization rate fell below 70% in the second half of the month, various companies had inventory, and the supply and demand relationship was not effectively improved. Prices continued to fall and stabilized at the end of the month.

4. China Melamine Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1) In May, the domestic urea market fluctuated within a narrow range, with prices rising first and then falling.
2) Domestic downstream demand has not improved yet, and purchasing intention is not strong.
3) The monthly average capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry increased significantly compared with the previous month.

5. Market Forecast For Next Month

In June, the supply level of melamine is still high, but the downstream demand is not expected to be good, and the market supply and demand relationship is expected to remain weak. Raw material urea fluctuates at a high level. Under the cost support, the overall decline of the melamine market is expected to be limited, but it is still necessary to pay attention to the start-up of various melamine plants under cost pressure. In June, melamine companies may adjust prices according to their own conditions. It is expected that the spot ex-factory price of atmospheric pressure method in the northern region will fluctuate between 5,100-5,500 yuan/ton.

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